How WBC is forecasting adult social care needs for the future

Of all the afflictions that fall upon us, few remain as unsettling as those that affect what might happen to us in old age.

It’s a problem being wrestled with in council offices in West Berkshire which has a looming population ‘bulge’.

The majority of the district’s population sitting in the 45 - 55 age bracket are either figuring out how to help their elderly relatives or looking into their own potential adult social care (ASC) needs.

Forecast modelling published in The Lancet suggests the number of people in the UK aged 85 or older who require round-the-clock help to eat, dress, wash and go to the toilet will almost double over the next 20 years.

It says increasing numbers of people living into old age will have multiple long-term conditions.

West Berkshire reflects the national statistics, and is trying to forecast what future needs the district will have - not just for the elderly, but for anyone in need over the age of 18.

Three quarters of the council tax increase in 2022 is being put toward ASC.

The ASC spend for 2022/23 is £75m, which includes £20m of income, mainly made up of client contributions from those who pay towards their care.

“I’m being told to stop asking for so much money,” said Paul Coe, West Berkshire’s executive director of adult social care.

He is juggling a burgeoning list of potential needs alongside a mind-boggling inventory of potential solutions, and is using data to help navigate a way forward.

“We don’t have a crystal ball so we are looking back at data and searching for a direction," he said. "We look at numbers of people and their needs. And by age. And we track what has happened in the past and therefore what might happen in the future."

In West Berkshire, there are around 1,700 adults in long term supported care.

“About six percent end up with a long term service need; not everyone needs this," he added. "So a very small percentage in West Berks end up needing long term services managed by us.”

He puts this ‘success’ down to another type of model – to assess people’s needs, essentially crafted around ‘help to help yourself’ and geared up according to need.

“We start with strengths and what people can manage on their own without us," he said. "It’s about having a conversation, so instead of saying we will send a care team in, we will work out a solution for that individual.

“If someone is struggling to cook, we might think, what about buying them a slow cooker?

“Another example was that someone couldn’t see the steps, so couldn’t go outside. We painted the steps so they could see them and go out.”

Anybody can ask the council – regardless of wealth or circumstance – for help.

The assessment process tick list comes from an impairment, for example, dementia, and what are the things you can’t do.

There is a statutory duty on the council to manage the market to provide the right kind and amount of services available.

“From a macro perspective, with an ageing population, does that mean we want lots of care services? In which case we will need a lot of workforce to manage that,” added Paul.

The council is constantly trying to recruit.

The care sector workforce in the UK is predicted to grow by almost half a million additional jobs by 2035.

West Berkshire is using its crystal ball here to try to attract more people in.

It is offering funded apprenticeships and has a number of people being put through degrees in social care and occupational health.

“It is a great time to work in social care if you are ambitious. It’s an open savannah from entry level, and we provide all the training,” said Paul.

Becky, one of WBC’s re-ablement officers agrees.

“I joined about a year ago; best thing I ever did," she said. "Don’t ever think you are not good enough. It’s the best thing I’ve ever done. Don’t doubt yourself.”